Elizabeth Warren announced her exploratory committee on December 31st, 2018. She was polling at 3% two weeks before that in Morning Consult. Below are her weekly polls for 7 weeks:

Week Vote Share Change
Jan 4-6 4% 0%
Jan 7-13 11% 7%
Jan 14-20 11% 0%
Jan 21-27 9% -2%
Jan 28-Feb 3 9% 0%
Feb 4-10 8% -1%
Feb 11-17 8%% 0%
Feb 18-24 7% -1%
Feb 25-Mar 3 7% 0%

Elizabeth Warren then got 7, 8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 9, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10 in the following 12 weeks.
Kamala Harris announced her candidacy on January 21st, 2019. She was polling at 6% in the Morning Consult poll that ran from the 14th to the 20th. Below are her weekly polls for 7 weeks:

Week Vote Share Change
Jan 14-20 6% 0%
Jan 21-27 11% 5%
Jan 28-Feb 3 14% 8%
Feb 4-10 13% -1%
Feb 11-17 11% -2%
Feb 18-24 10% -1%
Feb 25-Mar 3 11% +1%
Mar 4-10 10% -1%
Mar 11-17 8% -2%

Kamala Harris then got 8, 8, 9, 9, 8, 7, 7, 8, 8, 7, 7 in the following 10 weeks. Kamala’s later small drop appears to coincide almost perfectly with Warren’s small rise but this isn’t conclusive.

Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy on February 19th, 2019. He was polling at 21% in the Morning Consult poll that ran from the 14th to the 20th and had polled at 21% and 22% in the previous two weeks. Below are his weekly polls for 7 weeks:

Week Vote Share Change
Feb 11-17 21% 0%
Feb 18-24 27% 6%
Feb 25-Mar 3 27% 0%
Mar 4-10 27% 0%
Mar 11-17 27% 0%
Mar 18-24 25% -2%
Mar 25-31 25% 0%
Apr 1-7 23% -2%
Apr 8-14 23% 0%

Bernie Sanders then got 24, 22, 19, 19, 19, 20, 19 in the following 7 weeks.

We see that Warren went up 7 and dropped 4 in her 9 week cycle. Harris went up 8 and dropped 6 in her 9 week cycle, and Sanders went up 6 and dropped 4 in his 9 week cycle.

Harris went down 1 later and and Warren went up 3 later and Bernie went down 4 later. Some of this is complicated by them not being in the same place on the cycle. Stopping the results a week earlier has Bernie down 3 and Warren up 2 while Harris is stable.

In any case Warren was in her 3rd post announcement week when Harris announced Harris was in her 4th post announcement week when Bernie announced. Bernie was in his 9th/10th post announcement week when Biden announced.

There is some variability in announcement bumps or what you consider an announcement. Elizabeth Warren technically announced her campaign on February 9th, in which case she dropped was stable, dropped 1 for a month, went up 1 in a month, and then went up another in the next month.

Pete Buttigieg announced his exploratory committee on January 23rd, 2019 and remained totally flat at 0% for a month until he hit 1% in the Feb 18-24 Morning Consult survey. He had no pre-announcement poll numbers for obvious reasons and didn’t hit 1% outside of Morning Consult until Change Research did a poll on March 8-10 2 weeks later. He officially announce on April 14th when he’d been polling 3-11% in the previous couple weeks. In Morning Consult specifically he had polled 5% and 7% in the week weeks prior to his official announcement and he polled 9% and 8% the following two weeks. Biden announced in the middle of the 8% poll knocking Pete down to 6% and then down to 5% in the next poll.

While this was all happening Beto had announced on March 14th, 2019. He had been steady around 7% for a month or two prior to announcing and he hit 8% for about 6 weeks before Biden announced. He had dropped to 6% in the poll prior to Biden announcing because Buttigieg had just announced.

Buttigieg was at 8% in the poll Biden had announced in the middle of and 6% in the next poll while Beto was at 5% in both. All the candidates were essentially steady in the 2 polls full after Biden announced. Beto dropped to 4% and Warren rose from 8% to 9% in the next poll. Buttigieg was up from 6% to 7% while Harris dropped from 8% to 7% while Sanders gained one and Biden lost one. Finally in the poll that came out Monday Biden was steady, Bernie dropped 1, Buttigieg and Beto were steady at 7% and 4% respectively, and Warren was up 1 to 10 while Harris was steady at 7%. That’s where we are now.

Change from peak:

  • Biden -2
  • Bernie -8
  • Warren -1
  • Harris -7
  • Buttigieg -2
  • Beto -4

Its relevant to note that Biden was polling anywhere from 29 to 35 while Bernie was peaking. Biden had polled from 27% to 33% prior to Bernie announcing. This probably reflected the announcement of 3 major candidates, and lots of speculation about Biden and Beto boosting awareness of the race, which advantaged Biden as the candidate with the highest name recognition. Beto had been polling around 6%-8% during this period.

Here are the changes from the polls prior to any candidates announcing, as Warren was the earliest major candidate to announce a campaign or exploratory committee on December 31st, 2018.

Morning Consult Small 700 RV Sample December 14-16:

  • Biden +13(25%)
  • Sanders +4(15%)
  • Warren +7(3%)
  • Harris +4(3%)
  • Buttigieg +7(N/A)
  • Beto -4(8%)

Morning Consult Medium 4750 RV January 7-13:

  • Biden +7(31%)
  • Sanders -4(23%)
  • Warren -1(11%)
  • Harris +0(7%)
  • Buttigieg +7(N/A)
  • Beto -4(8%)

These actually give pretty wildly different results. Warren can be explained by her announcement but Biden has done way worse and Sanders as well compared to the December poll. Beto and Buttigieg are the same and Harris does worse here as well. A very mixed bag. The first Morning Consult Large 14000+ RV sample is pretty much identical to the medium sample.

Harry Enter lists the October polling average overall as almost identical to the current early June numbers but Morning Consult doesn’t have a poll back that far.

In any case its clear that Warren and Biden are in the best spot right now in relative terms as far as their bumps and their polls before anyone announced. Biden went up 10% and has no dropped back down to 8%. He had the largest bump of any candidate. However, Biden announced 41 days or roughly 6 weeks ago. He still has 3-5 weeks to drop both on his curve compared to other candidates and before the June debates in roughly 3 weeks.

One thought on “The Truth About Announcement Bumps Is That They Fade Over Roughly Two Months. Bernie Sanders Cruised High In Morning Consult For 5 Weeks Before Starting His Slide Just Before Joe Biden Announced. Biden Has 3 Weeks To Go.

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