I divide the South into two sections. The Greater South and the Core South. While the Greater South technically contains Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and certain other states, I omit them as they are covered in other sections. I have the delegate target tables for Core and Greater Southern states below:
The Greater South: 398 Delegates
|North Carolina||110||55%+ (61)||March 3rd/Primary|
|Virginia||99||45%+ (45)||March 3rd/Primary|
|Maryland||79||50%+ (40)||April 28th/Primary|
|Tennessee||64||60%+ (38)||March 3rd/Primary|
|Kentucky||46||70%+ (32)||May 19th/Primary|
The Core South: 297 Delegates
|South Carolina||54||35%+ (19)||February 29th/Primary|
|Alabama||52||30%+ (17)||March 3rd/Primary|
|Louisiana||50||35%+ (17)||March 7/Primary|
|Mississippi||36||40%+ (14)||March 10th/Primary|
As we can see the Abridged Greater South contains 695 total delegates which is 18.4% of all delegates. We included one early state, South Carolina, in the Core South. That leaves 658 delegates remaining in the states not covered if we don’t include Iowa and New Hampshire which got their own post. That does include Nevada. I have Bernie at 216/398 delegates in the Greater South, an average of 54%. I have him at 107/297 delegates in the Core South, amounting to 36%.
This puts him at 323/695 delegates overall in the South, an average of 46.47%, slightly ahead of the average he needs. The South is his worst area even though I’ve set targets well ahead of his 2016 numbers. Well perhaps you could argue that the 4 largest states are slightly worse for him, but not by much. Bernie needs 596 delegates and he gets 323 here, putting him at 273 to go. Considering that the remaining states are pretty good for him compared to the South, he is looking good in my model.
The major thing Bernie needs to do to get to his delegate targets in the 18 small states and the South is be frank and open. He needs to start each speech talking about his plans in the other part of the country so he can’t be misunderstood or accused of dishonesty. Directly tell voters what he plans to do for others, before getting to his plans for them. Explain in each place how this ties together to win him the election and flip Congress so he can actually pass legislation.
Bernie needs to spend a lot of time in the overall South. He has to talk to people, hold rallies, and have people on doors. He can’t afford the perception that was created, unfairly or otherwise, last time that he was focusing on northern and white states. He has the cash, and if you follow my post about the 100 days he spent in Iowa and NH last time, the time, to go national. His greatest chance for error is hitting Iowa and NH hard at the expense of more important states. He’ll do well there regardless. He needs to get out into the wider country. Especially if he wants to win the general election. The South is a major part of that.